Why Latvia is not South Korea. And why is it bad for us …

I’ll start with the alarm. Unfortunately, the situation in the world does not give grounds for optimism and continues to develop according to the most sinister of all possible scenarios. The actions of the US administration in recent months make us believe in her intention to “squeeze”, “press” Putin, which still seems to her an absolute threat.

It’s no secret that China is the only country in the world to which the United States forgives free thinking and independence. And that, most likely, because of the lack of breakthrough ideas on how to cope with its one and a half billion population and the first economy in the world. With respect to other states, the only behavior acceptable to America is obedience. Putin’s Russia is getting out of this row – and does it consistently-demonstratively over the past fifteen years.

Does Putin understand that his resistance provokes even more pressure? Of course yes. This is the meaning of the “military part” of his message to the Federal Assembly, which was intended to demonstrate to the country and the world that he is persistent and consistent in his disobedience.

Is the truth that the picture that accompanied his speech, not me to judge. Quite naturally, parallels arise with the “Star Wars” program of Reagan, which turned out to be a purely Hollywood project. But still I proceed from the fact that most of the declared positions are true, which floats, flies and shoots.

The degree of confrontation is increasing. And today we can talk about two scenarios for the development of events. Both are negative. There is no positive, as there are no obvious signs of improvement. If some behind-the-scenes negotiations are being conducted somewhere, at least I do not know anything about them, and therefore I can not take them into account.

The first scenario is the breaking of relations without obvious agitation. This – a moderate version of the “cold war”, when neither side misses the opportunity to poke a rival, but before the open fight, it does not reach. At the same time, each side is concentrating on its problems, the benefit of them, the problems, is more than enough for both America and Russia.

The second scenario is bad, in which the leaders of both powers decide to measure their muscles. I want to believe that in their right minds and solid memories they will not bring the situation to nuclear confrontation and confine themselves to a local war on the periphery. There are few such places, the choice is not great: the Baltics – just as a territory, and not as a set of Baltic countries, – one of the first comes to mind. Moreover, due to the mistakes of the Latvian domestic policy and its irrationality in the last 10-15 years, with the skilful management of the moods of a part of Latvian society, it is enough to throw a lighted match to make it flutter.

And at such development of events, unfortunately, my native cities Rezekne and Daugavpils can appear the first where Russian military commandant’s offices will open. After all, the prospect of the occupation of the Baltic by Russian troops is not questioned. Experts are not arguing about its possibility, but more about the timing in which it will occur – for two, three or five days.

However, in this seemingly hopelessly ominous situation, one can find weak shoots of positive. They are located on the other side of the world – on the Korean peninsula. It was from there that news began recently that Washington and Pyongyang were ready to sit down at the negotiating table. And all thanks to the South Koreans who have something to lose and who soberly assess the consequences for themselves of a military confrontation of any heat and scale between America and North Korea.

Even if nuclear arsenals are not uncovered in this confrontation, Seoul, which is less than 200 km from Pyongyang and from the border with the DPRK – 24 km, will not seem very small in any case. Common sense, reasonable calculation, elementary sense of self-preservation gave an excellent result for the whole world: the South Koreans managed to mediate and persuade North Korean and American politicians and diplomats to negotiate. We are waiting for the meeting.

It’s probably clear why I’m talking about this. In fact exactly the same could behave and Latvia, acting as an intermediary between the West and the East. To admit, for a while I had illusions about this. After all, Latvia, which was in the Russian Empire for almost 300 years, had a rich experience of living together, a political elite grown in Russian universities, strong economic and cultural ties, could indeed give 100 points to any other negotiator between Europe, America and Russia.

But it turned out the other way around. Latvia acted not as an intermediary, but as a “distributor”, a “bugler” if you want. Together with the Poles, we frightened the rest of Europe, and together with it, the US and NATO “the ferocity, immorality, aggressiveness and lack of culture of Russian Ivan.”

Well, it’s time to stop scaring others and get scared yourself. After all, if our elite counts on the fact that, with a certain development of events, will have time to settle on planes and fly away, I can assure you – not all! Someone will have time, but someone – no. And wherever the elite suffers, the ordinary people do not necessarily have to. It is not for nothing that the famous Ukrainian proverb says that when the panes are fighting, the slaves chatter with the serfs.

They say that when a predatory beast frightens a man, a person is capable of the most unexpected acts. For example, climb the trunk of the tree to an unattainable height. Perhaps, we will also be kindly frightened by unexpected actions – for example, that we begin to act effectively, reasonably, peacefully and put the interests of our country and all its residents without exception.

Although, it must be admitted, the ability to act in their own interests is not often manifested in the behavior of Latvians. In the XX century, this happened only twice. For the first time – 100 years ago, in the second – in the end of 1980 – the very beginning of the 1990’s.

It is understandable: each people has its own cultural code. And for many centuries of foreign rule Latvians have learned to obey and even find in this subordinate position a certain convenience. Moving on their owners responsibility for their future, the Latvians feel quite comfortable. This is part of our cultural code.

But right now it requires recoding, at least for a while, because in this form it poses a danger to us, our children and our grandchildren.

Having habitually taken off responsibility for our future and shifting it to stronger, clever, successful ones, we think, this time we risk seriously losing. Lose their own lives and the lives of our descendants, becoming a platform for demonstrating military developments and running the latest technology.

Of course, we – as members of NATO, the EU and OECD – will then help restore and rebuild everything, but first all will be bombed out here.

Do we need this, dear fellow citizens?

Jānis Urbanovičs