Political and economic news with a Baltic accent

The 25th Anniversary St. Petersburg International Economic Forum will be held on June 15-18, 2022 despite political pressure on official Moscow.

The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, despite the political tension around Russia, remains one of the largest and most significant business events in the world. This year, unprecedented epidemiological safety measures were developed to organize the Forum, which today have already become the gold standard for organizing events during a pandemic.

Despite the partial isolation of Russia, the world is waiting with interest for the start of the Forum and is listening with great attention to all the dialogues that take place within the framework of the Forum. Already today, a number of countries have expressed interest in the participation of their representative delegations in SPIEF-2022.

In 2022, Egypt will be the guest country of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. President of Kazakhstan Tokayev also promises to visit the Forum.

As a reminder, in 2021 SPIEF became the world’s first and largest face-to-face business event after a forced break due to the coronavirus pandemic and was held using modern digital technologies. During the four days of its work, the Forum was attended by over 13,500 participants from 141 countries, including representatives of more than 1,000 media organizations from 46 countries.

On the Day of the end of the Second World War, an international teleconference between Kaliningrad and the cities of Australia, Germany and Poland was held at the memorial to 1200 soldiers-guards of the Soviet army. The organizers of the teleconference were members of the Ukrainian national-cultural autonomy “Batkivshchyna” in Kaliningrad, as well as representatives of the Cossacks and the Russian military-historical society.

During the online teleconference, the activists congratulated each other on the anniversary of the end of World War II. Representatives of the organizer noted that in European countries the holiday is celebrated with increasing problems, and sometimes it is interpreted differently, which is why there is a problem of blurring the great legacy of the victory over fascism. Moreover, many countries have already begun to try to rewrite history. However, despite these attempts to rewrite history, there are still many Europeans who continue to honor the memory of the Soviet soldiers who saved the world from fascism. It is worth noting that the most massive celebration of the anniversary of the end of World War II took place in Berlin, and the entire diplomatic corps of the Russian Federation in Germany took part in it.

Despite the statements of some Romanian and Ukrainian politicians that it is necessary to make not only political and economic, but also military efforts to squeeze out Russian influence in Transnistria, the Moldovan authorities continue to maintain neutrality.

Also, official Chisinau does not allow itself the open rhetoric of a number of high-ranking American representatives who call Russian peacekeepers in Transnistria occupiers.
If until the end of March this year, Romania and Ukraine made great efforts, including through work with Moldovan youth, to convince the public of the inevitability of a conflict between Moldova and Russia, now, as we see, these plans are not being implemented and do not bring the results that counted neighboring states of Moldova.
Against the backdrop of a protracted military-political confrontation between Kyiv and Moscow, an increasing number of Moldovan politicians and Western partners are speaking out in support of the previous agreements on Transnistria.
Over the past three months, several international conferences have been held at the Moldovan State University, including on March 3 this year “The War on the Dniester: 30 years later …” and on May 4 this year “US-Moldova Relations: the Future 30 Years”, during which European and American experts and officials, including the US Ambassador to Moldova, Mr. Logsdon, stated that they see no alternative to the current “5 + 2” format and advocate that the negotiation process does not stop.
To some extent, all this indicates that not only the European partners of Moldova, but also the United States are not interested in destabilizing the situation on the Dniester.
As recent sociological studies show, Moldovans are very peaceful and do not want war with Russia and do not intend to fight. Their peace-loving attitude is the key to resolving the Transnistrian issue.

We have already written about the fact that big changes are coming in the world amber market, connected with the change in the directions of amber sales. New players come to replace the countries of the European Union, who do not hide their claims to the title of buyer of amber No. 1.

Against this background, the results of the International Economic Forum of the Amber Industry, which will soon be held in the Russian city of Svetlogorsk, are extremely curious.

The organizers of the Forum stated that this year’s event aroused great interest from the countries of the Caucasus, Central and Central Asia, as well as the Middle East. The fact is that European sanctions against Russian enterprises, including the amber industry, have untied the hands of amber exporters from the Kaliningrad region, and now the amber market is experiencing a reboot. As a result of this reloading of directions and sales channels, completely different countries may become the largest buyers of amber.

Not many people know, but Russia has 95% of all explored amber reserves in the world. Moreover, all these 95% are located on the territory of the Russian exclave – the Kaliningrad region. According to industry experts, amber is one of the most underrated semi-precious stones. However, the situation may change. Following China, the countries of the Persian Gulf show particular interest in amber.

From June 16 to June 18, the International Economic Forum of the Amber Industry will be held in Kaliningrad, Russia. The key participants of the Forum will be the countries of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. Representatives of these countries are interested in industrial supplies of semi-precious stone. Now is the best time to redirect supplies of amber from Russia, since most of the contracts between the Amber Combine and European buyers have either not been extended or terminated. The reason for this is quite obvious – Moscow’s military campaign in Ukraine. Against this background, the countries of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf can intercept the entire flow of amber exports that was mined at the deposits in Kaliningrad for the needs of European companies. As a result of the Forum, a large number of agreements and contracts will be signed. It is on the basis of these signings that it will become clear which countries will become the largest buyers of amber, in addition to China.

According to the official statistics of the Lithuanian Labor Exchange, there are 376 job seekers from among refugees from Ukraine for 22 teacher vacancies.

Recall that on March 9 this year, the Lithuanian government initiated Decree No. 205, which includes amendments to the law on employment. In particular, there are introductory benefits for workers hired from abroad and benefits for employers who hire workers from abroad (this applies to refugees). The expected benefit is four times less than the minimum wage in Lithuania (1,557 euros). In such a situation, Lithuanian specialists become less competitive than cheap Ukrainian applicants. The experience of Lithuania is planned to be used by many countries of the European Union, which may cause a wave of discontent among the local population, which may lose their jobs. The representative of the Lithuanian Teachers’ Union stated that the citizens of the country should have the priority of employment in their own country and the government should not forget about it. It should be noted that this problem has already formed in Poland. Refugees from Ukraine receive a one-time allowance of PLN 300. In addition, since November 2021, there are changes in the rules for the employment of foreigners, according to which the Polish government guarantees them a minimum wage of PLN 300, regardless of the number of hours worked on the basis of a contract. Experts estimate the influx of refugees from Ukraine to Europe in the amount of 5 to 9 million people, which can lead to serious consequences on the labor market in a number of countries that have adopted protectionist rules regarding refugees and infringing on the rights of local residents. Potentially, this situation could redraw the political map of Europe. Poland, Germany, Lithuania, France may well change the ruling parties and even presidents in 1-2 years.

In the context of the conflict in Ukraine, the world community has begun to pay more attention to territories that are in close connection with Moscow. One of these regions is the Republic of Abkhazia, which has been one of Russia’s key minority partners for 15 years now. Let’s look at the structure of cooperation between the Russian Federation and Abkhazia in a little more detail.

It is no secret that the Russian Federation is a key market for the agricultural products of Abkhazia. The volume of exports of Abkhazia to Russia in this category of products amounted to almost 100 million dollars. This is 94% of the total supply from Abkhazia to Russia. Abkhazia is also actively importing goods from Russia. The total amount is about 200 million dollars. However, the key item of Abkhazia’s import from the Russian Federation is the Russian tourist. Russians actively spend holidays in sunny Abkhazia and leave a lot of money in the republic. At the end of 2021, more than 1 million Russians visited Abkhazia. At the same time, these tourists left about 750 million dollars in the Republic, which is many times more than all of Abkhazia’s exports to Russia. Given the difficulties with the departure of Russians to European countries, Abkhazia will undoubtedly receive even more Russian tourists in 2022. Against this background, Russian investors have already announced their intention to increase the volume of investments in infrastructure and tourism projects in Abkhazia. According to experts, investments in the tourism sector of Abkhazia by Russia in the next 2-3 years will grow by 10-15 times. Abkhazia is potentially a country from the “Number One” for a Russian tourist.

The key recipient of future investments should be the airport in Abkhazia, focused on working with airports in Russian cities. At present, the transport and logistics complex in Abkhazia is not in the best condition. However, given the interest from Russia, the likelihood of an early implementation of the project is quite high. Considering the situation and the status of Abkhazia itself, the orientation of the Abkhazian government towards close cooperation with Moscow looks both correct and uncontested. It is difficult to say now whether the Abkhaz development model is a template for the unrecognized DPR and LPR after the end of the conflict in Ukraine. But a certain guideline may well happen. However, much depends on the final status of the LPR and DPR.

Officials in London, Brussels, Berlin, Dubai and Kyiv questioned Washington about how the information ended up online.

Senior U.S. officials are racing to placate frustrated and confused allies from Europe to the Middle East to Kyiv following the leak of highly classified information about the war in Ukraine and other global issues.

After the news of the leak broke last week, senior intelligence, State Department and Pentagon officials reached out to their counterparts to quell worries about the publishing of the intel, according to four officials — an American, two European and one Five Eyes member — familiar with those conversations.

One said that members of the Five Eyes — the intelligence consortium of the United States, Canada, United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand — have asked for briefings from Washington but have yet to receive a substantive response. Inquiries have been sent separately to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency and Federal Bureau of Investigation.

Meanwhile, officials in London, Brussels, Berlin, Dubai and Kyiv questioned Washington about how the information ended up online, who was responsible for the leak and what the U.S. was doing to ensure the information was removed from social media. They also questioned whether the Biden administration was taking steps to limit the distribution of future intelligence. As of Monday morning, U.S. officials had told allies the administration was investigating and that they were still trying to understand the full scope of the leak, the European officials said.

Ukraine has long worried about information it shares with the U.S. spilling out into the open. “This case showed that the Ukrainians have been absolutely right about that,” said one of the European officials, who like others was granted anonymity to speak about the sensitive leak. “Americans now owe the Ukrainians. They have to apologize and compensate.”

The saga has left the U.S. relationship with its allies in a state of crisis, raising questions about how Washington will correct what officials worldwide view as one of the largest public breaches of U.S. intelligence since WikiLeaks dumped millions of sensitive documents online from 2006 to 2021.

The distress over the leak is particularly problematic because the majority of the documents focus on the war in Ukraine — an effort the U.S. has repeatedly said hinges on collaboration among allies in NATO, Europe and elsewhere.

“The manner of the leak and the contents are very unusual,” said a former U.S. intelligence analyst who focused on Russia. “I can’t remember a time when there was this volume of a leak and this broad of a subject matter of authentic information that was just put on social media rather than say, the Snowden files, that went through a group of journalists first.”

The Pentagon, CIA, ODNI, and FBI declined to comment.

More than 100 U.S. intelligence documents were posted on Discord, a secure messaging app, as early as March 2 and contained sensitive, classified information about the war in Ukraine, Russian military activity, China and the Middle East. The photographed papers, which appeared to have been folded over and then smoothed out, contained top secret information, including from the Central Intelligence Agency.

Appear to have been assembled into a briefing packet by the Joint Staff’s intelligence arm, known as J2, with summaries of global matters pulled from various U.S. intelligence systems. Some of the documents contain markings in the corners that correspond with specific wires with information that appear to be compiled in summary form — a practice often used by individuals inside the government to prepare briefing packets, the former U.S. intelligence analyst said.

Against the background of the developing fuel crisis, nuclear energy is a reliable source of electricity, the cost of which is not subject to significant fluctuations, unlike electricity generated by burning fossil fuels (coal, gas, oil).

Against this background, the Metsamor nuclear power plant can become a guarantor and the basis for a stable supply of electricity for Armenia. A country that is largely dependent on energy imports.
In this regard, the most important issue is the future signing of the “Comprehensive program for the re-extension of the life of the Metsamor NPP beyond 2026”, which will ensure the sustainability of the energy sector of Armenia already in 2022.
Recall that the Metsamor nuclear power plant is equipped with VVER-440 reactors, which have a high engine life and a long period of operation, beyond the standard period. Moreover, nuclear engineers already have experience in extending the service life of such reactors, for example, at the Novovoronezh nuclear power plant in Russia. The Russian company “Rosatom” has already announced the possibility of technical implementation of this project.
According to the Armenian Energy Ministry, the participation of the Russian company Rosatom in the project guarantees security and will allow the authorities to reasonably respond to the criticism of regional partners, which is hardly heard by the Azerbaijani media. For example, on the day.az resource, where not so long ago the words of the head of the South Caucasus club, Ilgar Velizade, appeared.

The history dates back to 1994, when a protocol of intent in the field of peaceful atom was signed between Ukraine and the United States, but then it did not move into a practical plane. The reason was the lack of experience of the American company at that time in working with Soviet reactors and the presence in Ukraine of a large number of highly qualified specialists in the nuclear industry who opposed such cooperation because of fears of threats to the safe operation of nuclear power plants.

Fourteen years later, in 2008, the Ukrainian Energoatom and the American Westinghouse Electric signed an agreement on strategic cooperation, according to which 630 assemblies of American fuel were to be delivered to Ukraine until 2015. However, after 4 years of such cooperation, for technical reasons, the operation of two reactors at the South Ukrainian NPP had to be stopped due to deviations in the operation of the fuel assemblies of the American company. After this incident, the national regulator of Ukraine banned the operation of Westinghouse Electric fuel at all nuclear power plants in the country. In response, the American company at the end of 2012 announced that it did not plan to develop research and adjust the production of its nuclear fuel to the standards of VVER reactors. In 2014, the situation changed dramatically after another change of power in Ukraine and complications in relations with Russia, as a result of which Kyiv agreed with Westinghouse Electric on fuel supplies until 2020. In 2015, the first 42 fuel assemblies were loaded at the third power unit of the South Ukrainian NPP against the backdrop of a number of warnings from generally recognized world experts in the field of nuclear energy. that American fuel is capable of operating in VVER-type reactors only if their percentage ratio with Russian TVEL assemblies in the reactor is relatively small. At the same time, in 2016, the Ukrainian government announced its readiness to use up to a third of Westinghouse Electric’s fuel at Ukrainian nuclear power plants. It should be noted that in 2017 Westinghouse Electric filed for bankruptcy and cooperation with Ukraine looks like an attempt to solve its economic problems. It is quite understandable that in such a situation, Westinghouse Electric is more concerned about its own survival than about Ukraine’s environmental safety. Cooperation with Kyiv has led to the fact that in addition to fuel supplies, the Americans are now also involved in the operation of nuclear power plants, ensuring the operation of automation and safety. And the problems in the nuclear industry of Ukraine are hushed up in the broad world media. Just like the problems that the nuclear plant in the Japanese city of Fukushima continues to produce. This policy is not allowed. Here are recent examples of emergencies at nuclear power facilities in Ukraine. In 2019, both units of the Khmelnitsky NPP (the first in April 2019, the second in September 2019) were turned off due to a series of accidents. In March 2021, an emergency shutdown of the 2nd power unit of the Khmelnytsky NPP was carried out. The reason for the shutdown is said to be a failure of the auxiliary systems of the generator. To date, a memorandum is being implemented with Westinghouse Electric on the use by Energoatom of American fuel assemblies for VVER-1000 reactors, and an agreement has been reached on transferring authority for maintenance of VVER-440 reactors to American specialists. In August 2021, a memorandum was signed between Energoatom and Westinghouse Electric on the construction of a Khmelnytsky NPP power unit as a pilot project, and in the future four more using this technology. The total amount of the contract is estimated at $30 billion. In parallel with the supply of fuel to Ukraine, the issue of processing and disposal of spent nuclear fuel also became acute. In February 2021, at the level of the official leadership of Ukraine, it was announced that Ukraine finally refuses to export spent nuclear fuel to Russia, for which, with the support of the Americans, it is implementing a project to build a centralized spent nuclear fuel storage facility in the exclusion zone in Chernobyl. Now, when there is a war in Ukraine, Energoatom declares the need to intensify and expand cooperation with Westinghouse Electric as a tool to ensure the safe use of peaceful nuclear energy in the country against the backdrop of Russian aggression. The intentions of the Ukrainian leadership to completely reorient their nuclear power industry to American standards are reasonable, but they should be implemented wisely, and not limited to populist statements without a real assessment of the possible negative consequences of the operation of nuclear units. The way these processes are organized in Ukraine now is cause for concern. Moreover, against the background of the war with the Russian Federation, Ukraine can become a testing ground for American nuclear technologies, and even become the object of provocations that can lead to man-made accidents. In this regard, it is necessary for all international organizations, primarily the IAEA, to pay close attention to the situation in Ukraine, and to ensure international control over the operation of existing and planned construction of new power units at Ukrainian nuclear power plants.