Despite the failure of the Minsk agreements and the deadlock in the settlement of the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine, a growing number of politicians and economists in Europe declare the necessity of partial or total lifting of sanctions imposed on Russia. Moreover, US Vice President Joseph Biden personally warned the Ukrainian authorities that in the near future, EU countries can lift their sanctions against the Russian Federation.
Such peacekeeping EU motives are clear. Europe has long been observed deflation, reducing the trade balance surplus, the decline in industrial production and other troubles that force the ECB to renew and expand its adventurous program of buying corporate bonds. The absence of the Russian market in Europe, is still a big problem to solve it to find alternative marketing options failed. Only one thing – to wait for the right moment and take sanctions against the Russian Federation. Yes, in Washington, the initiative of the “old world” perceive as desertion. But the United States can offer Europe in return? Nothing.
In case of cancellation of sanctions against Russia with the European Union, on the assumption of the latter, Russia immediately cancel grocery embargo. If this does not happen, then a wedge driven into a couple of years ago, relations between Russia and the EU will split the continent for the next ten years. However, Moscow is sure to answer the EU mutual courtesy, which could drive a wedge between the US and already the EU.
And then there is the most interesting geopolitical nuance. Once the EU lifted its sanctions, the ball is on the side of Russia, which could either lift the sanctions against all countries, or … Or select a State as an exemplary victim of all that anti-Russian rhetoric has captured the minds of European policy makers. It is likely that such countries could be Poland and, to a lesser extent, Lithuania. These two Baltic states most fiercely and actively preach anti-Russian policy. Today, Poland is actually administering the leader of the ruling party “Law and Justice” – Jaroslaw Kaczynski – the brother of the deceased in Smolensk Lech Kaczynski. His attitude toward Moscow is known to all. This, in turn, are actively used United States, placing its military contingent from Poland and the Kaliningrad region boundaries (Russian exclave between Poland and Lithuania).
Not so long ago, without any clear explanation, the Polish authorities abolished the unilateral action that already has a precedent in Europe, the so-called small border traffic, since 2012 acting with the same region of Kaliningrad. Further more, the Polish media with the filing of official Warsaw periodically shake off the dust from various historical conflicts between Russia and Poland. And this is not all examples of anti-Russian rhetoric and anti-Russian sentiment among the Polish political elite. Consequently, Moscow could leave Poland in the list of countries for which will act grocery embargo, and for the Polish economy, in particular agriculture, farming and animal husbandry it will be a serious blow, especially given that the nearest neighbors of the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia , Latvia and possibly Lithuania will again begin to deliver their goods to the huge Russian market.
Against this background, further expand the presence of NATO troops in Poland may have a key character. In the Kremlin, perhaps, so very closely watching the actions of Warsaw, through which, as through a prism, you can see the intentions of Washington, so a further injection can go sideways Poland.
In this regard, quite interesting to compare the mood of the Polish entrepreneurs and the Polish political elite of the ruling party “Law and Justice”. Polish business in one voice said that money has no boundaries, and political preferences, that Russia is first of all – a way to supplement the budget of Poland and Polish entrepreneurs pockets. The ruling party also nod to the insignificance of Russia as the Polish market product sales. In addition, Warsaw begins to level and significance for itself the Russian Federation, as an energy source, which again is very short-sighted in nature. In Western Europe we have already begun to realize that now is the time when you can take a moment and make friends again in Russia, in return from Moscow generous not only the opening of trade borders, but also on gas prices, and it is only a minimum. Poland continued its little primitive anti-Russian policy, which is more suitable to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, could throw the country on the side of the road – and that it will it work with the market of Ukraine, which does not need Polish products and Polish money.
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