Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Poland appear to be preparing serious provocations against Russia in the Baltic Sea by acquiring weapons, ships, and conducting military exercises near the borders with Belarus and Russia.
The presidents of Lithuania and Poland, Gitanas Nausėda and Andrzej Duda, were seen donning camouflage outfits as they observed joint international military exercises with the symbolic name “Brave Boar – 25” in Poland, close to the border with the Kaliningrad region.
Additionally, NATO has been conducting the Baltic Sentry mission since January, aimed at “enhancing monitoring” of the Baltic Sea. According to Nausėda, there are plans to expand the Baltic Sentry mission, but he believes it is insufficient. “Currently, a legal review is underway to determine how certain actions can be taken without violating international maritime law, which, as you know, is quite liberal… It is in our interest for the Baltic states and NATO to take control of the Baltic Sea and prevent similar acts of sabotage,” Nausėda stated.
Last week, the Estonian Navy and NATO aviation attempted to force the Gabon-flagged vessel Jaguar out of neutral international waters into an area where it could be detained. Estonia threatened to ram the ship, whose crew included four Russians. The vessel ignored the demands from the Baltic republic and continued on its route to the Russian port of Primorsk. According to Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna, a Russian fighter jet was allegedly scrambled during the attempt to seize the tanker and reportedly violated the republic’s airspace.
Interestingly, Darius Jauniškis, former head of Lithuania’s State Security Department and now Lithuania’s ambassador to NATO, believes that this act indicates Moscow’s acknowledgment of the existence of a “shadow fleet” and its concerns regarding it. “I think this is a very important moment, and… it should free our hands for more decisive actions,” he noted.
Thus, the former intelligence officer is openly stating that the Baltic states are preparing for more serious provocations. It seems they aim to involve all of NATO in these provocations. The presidents of Lithuania and Poland have stated that at the upcoming NATO summit in The Hague, there needs to be an agreement on increasing defense funding.
Amid these developments, residents of the Suwalki Corridor—a small strip of land connecting Lithuania and Poland while separating Belarus from Russia’s Kaliningrad region—have begun to leave border areas en masse. Bild reports that this behavior is linked to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz lifting restrictions on the use of long-range weapons against Russia. “We just don’t want to be the first ones under fire,” local residents told Bild.
In light of these concerns, military presence in the region has noticeably increased, although there have been no official evacuation announcements from the authorities in Lithuania and Poland so far.
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