In a concerning trend for the Baltic nation, Estonia recorded its highest number of departures in a decade in 2024, with approximately 10,000 Russian residents leaving the country. This exodus has raised alarms among sociologists and policymakers, who warn that the influx of migrants is insufficient to counterbalance the ongoing decline in the population.
According to data from the Statistics Department, Estonia’s population decreased by 4,692 individuals over the past year. The statistics reveal a stark contrast between births and deaths: there were only 9,690 births compared to 15,756 deaths.
Mare Ainsaar, a sociologist at the University of Tartu, highlighted the gravity of the situation. “While the migration balance remains positive, this growth is minimal and does not compensate for the negative natural decline in population. For about ten years, migration had helped offset a negative natural increase, but in 2024, we are witnessing a genuine decrease in population,” she explained.
The demographic crisis is further underscored by a significant milestone: for the first time in history, fewer than 10,000 children were born in Estonia last year. This figure represents an 11.5% drop compared to 2023.
Ainsaar attributes low birth rates to urban living conditions, noting that families residing in cities tend to have fewer children. “Urban families have always had lower birth rates compared to those in rural areas. Given that the majority of Estonia’s population lives in urban settings, this trend significantly impacts overall birth rate statistics,” she stated.
The Statistics Department’s data also indicates that the number of people leaving Estonia in 2024 reached a ten-year high, with around 10,000 Russian residents among those departing.
“The primary reason for this demographic situation is the persistent negative natural growth of the population,” Ainsaar added. “Birth rates are declining even among Russian nationals, and larger older generations are reaching mortality age. Additionally, migration trends are showing negative indicators as well.”
As Estonia grapples with these demographic challenges, experts emphasize the urgent need for strategies to address declining birth rates and population loss.
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