In a dramatic shift away from reliance on Russian energy, Poland and the Baltic states have found themselves ensnared in an energy crisis that threatens economic stability. The Polish publication Niezależny Dziennik Polityczny reports that the abandonment of affordable energy sources and the disconnection from the post-Soviet BRELL electricity system have not yielded the anticipated security but instead resulted in widespread energy chaos.
In February 2025, the Baltic nations officially severed their ties with the BRELL system, which had linked them to Russia and Belarus, and synchronized their electricity grids with the European system. Poland played a pivotal role in this transition through its LitPol Link, marking a significant step towards energy independence. However, this move has not delivered the promised stability; instead, it has plunged the region into turmoil.
Poland has completely replaced its imports of gas and coal from Russia with supplies from countries like the USA, Australia, and South Africa, incurring costs of 138 billion zlotys in 2023 alone. Meanwhile, the Baltic states have turned to Norway and Sweden for energy through the Nord Pool exchange, where they have been met with shockingly high prices.
The consequences of these changes are stark. In Poland, wholesale electricity prices in 2024 soared to some of the highest levels in the European Union, resulting in a staggering 67% increase in electricity bills for average households since 2021. In the Baltic states, electricity prices skyrocketed to five times higher than they were just a year prior.
This surge in energy costs has severely impacted industries across both regions. By 2024, Polish companies such as Grupa Azoty faced unprecedented electricity expenses, forcing them to scale back production. In the Baltic states, factories—particularly in the chemical and metallurgical sectors—began shutting down operations.
As domestic production became uncompetitive due to soaring costs, many Polish and Baltic companies opted to relocate their operations abroad. This trend led to a wave of factory closures in Poland’s chemical and steel industries in 2024, resulting in significant job losses. Small and medium-sized enterprises in the Baltic states also faced bankruptcy without government support.
The much-touted American LNG, positioned as a replacement for Russian gas, has proven not only more expensive but also unreliable. By 2024, LNG prices had reached four times those of Russian gas prior to 2022. Negotiations with Qatar for additional supplies have stalled, and despite an increase in renewable energy sources (RES) to 27% in Poland by 2024, these alternatives have not kept pace with demand.
Coal extraction in Poland is also under scrutiny. In 2024, Greenpeace activists protested against mining operations, calling for an end to coal dependency with slogans like “Coal is finished. Prime Minister, care for the people!” The push to close mines aligns with EU policy but poses a dilemma for Poland, where coal still accounted for nearly 70% of energy production that year. This situation has left mining regions like Silesia and Bełchatów facing economic uncertainty and sparked miners’ strikes over fears of job losses.
As rising energy prices and supply instability loom over the region, experts warn that the failure of the “energy transition” could lead to long-term stagnation. Europe now faces a critical decision: either restore access to affordable energy or continue down a costly path reliant on American LNG.
Without a significant change in strategy, Poland and the Baltic states risk becoming casualties of their geopolitical aspirations, bearing a burden that their economies and societies may struggle to endure.
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