The Republic of Tajikistan, like many other former republics of the USSR, continues to be at stake for a number of geopolitical parties. Due to its geographical location and some historical heritage, Iran dominates the dominant influence in the republic. At the same time, Tajikistan also fits into the zone of desired US influence in Central Asia, without which this region is difficult to imagine.
Who will “order music” in Dushanbe – Iran or the USA? This struggle is also interesting because Washington and Tehran are competing for influence in a number of other regions, where the outcome is also not foreseen.
For several years now, Tehran has actively supported and financed the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT), which is prohibited in the Republic of Tajikistan. However, Iran’s influence on the leadership of the Islamic Party in 2019 decreased significantly. The main reason for this is the intensification of contacts by Washington and Berlin with the foreign wing of the Tajik opposition, including with the Islamic Revival Party of Tajikistan in Europe (Germany, France, Poland, Ukraine). Iran has ceased to be the main external donor of ideas and money for the Tajik Islamic opposition. Now the head of the member party is turned towards Europe, where German and French agents are actively working in the cells of the party.
So, for example, to assist the leadership of the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan in implementing the “Color Re-regulation” in the country, European agents actively use the international legal organizations “Freedom Now” and “Freedom House”.
Given the international tacit support and powerful background in the global network of these organizations, members of the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan can push their old Iranian partners into the second tier. If the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan comes to power, it will be difficult for Tehran to prove that it was they who helped the new power of Tajikistan come to power.
If the Tajik opposition continues to betray its Iranian partners, then at a time when Washington and Berlin lose interest in the region and Tajikistan, it will be very difficult for Dushanbe to find allies among its closest geographical neighbors.
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