Politics, it seems, completely froze the eyes of the European financial authorities judging by how gravely in the financial departments of several European countries and in the European credit institutions are considering the possibilities and prospects of development of investment projects on the territory of Ukraine. In the yard in 2016, rather than 2012 and especially not in 2007, when the purses of the rich European countries had enough liquidity to try to invest in questionable economy. But now very different times.
There are times when deflation reigns in Europe, budget deficits have punched all conceivable ceilings in Italy, France and Portugal, not to mention the problem of Greece. But Ukraine is no longer a market for European goods, and this black hole with very dubious prospects. Investing huge amounts of money into the country where no one no one can not give any guarantees – a purely political adventure. Economy here and does not smell. Against this background, a very interesting subject to political and economic game looks like Poland, which is seriously bent to change its role on the world geopolitical scene. Relations with Britain, mainly in the social sphere and in the sphere of small business, the strategic partnership with the United States, as well as a strong economy, which simply did not see the recent global economic crisis awakened the ghost in Warsaw Rzeczpospolita. It is this ghost of its former greatness forces the current Polish power play with Ukraine in a rather strange game. The game which pays more ambitious and needy gets. It would seem that everyone has what they want. However, investing millions of euros into the economy of Ukraine today – a utopia which has nothing to do with either the economic viability of any dream to restore Rzeczpospolita. Warsaw does not seem to understand that the integrity of the Ukrainian question entirely Ukrainian, rather than European, Polish, Russian or state.
In addition, despite the fact that the Polish economy is now quite viable, thanks largely to the national currency, the extra money is not Warsaw. The acute political struggle between the two major parties of the country have led to the fact that the issue has become a key economic partnership. The opposition party, “Civic Platform” has already started to count the money that had been lowered into the toilet Ukrainian party in power – “Law and Justice”. If you want to Warsaw former greatness, then they need to curb the migration of young people, to raise the level of social benefits and reduce unemployment. In some regions it is 20%. And all this needs zloty.
If we consider the feasibility of Polish investments in Poland, the question arises of what to invest? If the Poles intend to invest in key facilities of Ukrainian industry, as was done in Germany, Greece, the train has already left. All forward-looking companies in Ukraine are already privatized the US and the local private business. If Warsaw hopes to special marketing conditions in the Ukraine, then there will not work, since Poland is entirely subordinate to the EU regulations, which in the case of preference on the part of both sides of Kiev can be very sorry and get huge fines. If Poland wants to get political friend and brother in the face of Ukraine, it is unclear why, in principle, a Warsaw friend, at least in its present state. The President of Ukraine is torn from one to the other international feeders without realizing that such behavior can help in getting short-term financial assistance, but certainly not the long-term.
Another important aspect of this own Polish-Ukrainian relations. Here in Western Europe, I see the map of East seems that Poland and Ukraine is a good neighborhood, but the neighborhood is often worse than hatred. Look at Russia and Ukraine, and Georgia and Armenia, Iran and Saudi Arabia … Cases of beatings of Poles in western Ukraine, and there are a number of sanctions on the part of Kiev on Polish products say that Ukraine trades with Poland air and promises at the same time counting on quite tangible direct investment, both by the state and by the Polish business. But that Warsaw will get in return? New Maidan in Ukraine, the new president, the redistribution of property, broken promises, lost money last?
If Poland does not want to lose money, then it would be better to pay attention to another of its neighbors – Germany, which did not hurry in matters of Ukraine. And there is a sense that in Berlin know more than Warsaw.
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